Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Politics '16: (Delegate) Size Matters

Truman was so widely expected to lose the 1948...
Truman was so widely expected to lose the 1948 election that the Chicago Tribune ran this incorrect headline. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
First, the results from what was billed "Super Tuesday 2":  Both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are well on their way to the number of delegates needed to win their respective parties' presidential nominations, based on victories in the primaries and caucuses.  Clinton won Mississippi as well as Trump, who also took Michigan and Hawaii.  Idaho chose Texas senator Ted Cruz in its GOP primary.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Governor John Kasich of Ohio?  Let's just say they need a miracle.

But the big news came from the Democratic primary in Michigan, where Clinton lost to Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.  While this was the worst look the various polling organizations (who thought Clinton would win) have had since "Dewey Defeats Truman" in 1948, it also points up a couple of things the former Secretary of State needs to fix if she is to make it to Election Day:  Clinton is saying most of the right things she needs to get elected, but faces credibility problems when it comes to her e-mails or her dealings with big business.  Also, how come she's losing states like Minnesota and Michigan as well as young voters to Sanders.  For this reason, she needs to win in Ohio and Illinois next week.

As for Sanders, the more he talks, the more unrealistic he sounds.  Free college for all?  Sounds great, but who's going to pay for it?  White people have never known poverty?  If the Great Recession had taught us one thing, it's that you don't need to live in certain areas to be down and out if your house was foreclosed and your job disappeared.  It can be anyone and anywhere at any time, no matter who you are.  Who knows?  They might be Donald Trump's biggest supporters.

Speaking of Trump, the New York billionaire reached new lows in the past week.  First, during the GOP debate in Detroit (telecast live from the Fox Theater on Fox News Channel), he not only referred to Rubio as "Little Marco", but also made comments as to the size of Trump's penis.  Then, at a news conference following his Super Tuesday 2 victories, Trump took the opportunity to pitch products with his name on it.  Classy.

Trump has also scared off another potential competitor in Michael Bloomberg, who was considering a third-party run.  The billionaire media mogul and former mayor of New York City figured out what no one else has ever considered:  A vote for Bloomberg is really a vote for either Trump or Cruz, and he didn't want to subject the country to either of those guys.  If that's true, then it's the most patriotic thing Bloomberg has done yet.  Or the dumbest.

Rubio and Kasich have been hanging around this long, and need to win in their respective states of Florida and Ohio for their campaigns to remain relevant.  If that doesn't happen, they can take a seat next to Dr. Ben Carson, who dropped out last week.

It's getting late to slow down the inevitable march of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton toward their November showdown.  The other candidates are learning, with every remaining primary or caucus, that the size of how many delegates you need to overcome the leaders really does matter.

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