Ukraine: Divide and Conquer

Ukraine Demo (Photo credit: blu-news.org)

In 1986, the Chernobyl nuclear plant in what is now Ukraine suffered a devastating meltdown that killed 31 people, sickened thousands more and ruined all life in the area for years to come.  It was, and still is, the world's worst nuclear disaster.

Right now the Ukrainian government hopes to avoid a similar fate, only no nukes are involved.

Joined together as an independent nation following the Soviet Union's demise, the country is now at odds with itself between people in the East who believe they should follow Mother Russia, and those in the West who prefer European ideals.  One casualty so far has been President Viktor Yanukovych, who was overthrown in a popular uprising for his pro-Russian views and replaced by an interim pro-Western government, pending new elections.

Taking advantage of this political instability is Russian President Vladimir Putin, just returned from charming the world at the Sochi Winter Olympics.  He has sent troops into the Crimean peninsula, an area that's been no stranger to occupation, which has not been part of Russia since 1954.  The explanation is that many Ukrainians of Russian descent live there, and that the area is important to Russian security because it has the industrial areas and access to the Black Sea that the west lacks.  It might not stop there, because it is reported that Putin has designs on occupying eastern Ukraine.

It's easy to think that, if the Ukrainians really wanted to split, then let them.  Adolf Hitler had much the same idea back in the 1930s.  Believing that Germans stuck in areas created by boundaries set up after World War I should come back into the fold, he invaded Austria and the Sudeten land in what was then Czechoslovakia.  The European powers let Hitler get away with it just to keep the peace.  But only for so long before Poland was invaded, and World War II began.

There are diplomatic efforts going on to help defuse this crisis, but in truth there is little the United States and its allies can do besides imposing economic sanctions or boycotting summits.  All that would do is to send the price of Ukraine's greatest assets--oil and wheat--skyrocketing, and no one wants that.  Nor do they want a military confrontation.  Putin doesn't seem to want one either, but he's holding the cards right now.

If Ukraine's new government can somehow keep its citizens from splitting apart and send the Russians home, then it has a good chance at survival.  If not, a civil war might erupt and Putin might be tempted to take over the whole country while the West watches helplessly.  This might not be the start of a new Cold War, but the forecast is for cooler temperatures.