Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Going Nuclear (Or Not)

Aside from the disaster that is the Affordable Health Care Act and plunging approval ratings, the last few days have been rather significant for President Barack Obama and the Democrats.  How significant remains to be seen.

A temporary deal to limit Iran's alleged nuclear program.  U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan for another decade.  And the Senate does something about filibusters.  In all, it's quite a gamble.

Iranian Nukes Frozen

After months of secret negotiations, the United States and Iran came up with this deal:  The Iranians will stop making the nuclear materials allegedly intended to be weaponized, in exchange for some economic sanctions to be lifted.  Already it has had an effect in the U.S., where gas prices have been going down.

But the deal is for six months, with a more substantial agreement to be negotiated.  That has America's allies, especially Israel, on edge because they were not taken into consideration during the negotiations.  Congressional Republicans (and some Democrats) feel the same way, believing that the tougher sanctions that have been in place are still the way to go.

Should there be no deal, however, all bets are off.  Truth be told, the Israelis would rather bomb the Iranians  than negotiate with them.  And some of the more conservative Iranians aren't crazy about the idea either.  It's been 34 years after U.S.-Iranian relations were severed over the the American diplomats being taken  prisoner for over 400 days.  "Death to America" is still a common refrain heard around Tehran.  But more moderate leaders are in power now, and that's what led to this apparent thaw.  For now.

Another Decade in Afghanistan

Despite a promise by President Obama to get U.S. soldiers out of Afghanistan by this time next year, it looks as if this country's longest war will get longer.  Under a proposed new agreement with the Afghan government, as many as 10,000 American military personnel would remain there in a noncombat role through 2024.  The Afghans say they are now in a position to handle their own security, so what do they need the U.S.'s help for?  Or is there more to this than that?  Afghanistan just happens to sit right next to Iran and Pakistan.

The Senate Nukes Filibusters  

Senate Democrats, tired of watching their Republican brethren using stalling tactics to stop important legislation dead in its tracks, have decide to do away with the filibuster by way of the so-called "nuclear option".  From now on, a simple majority is needed to pass the President's agenda and most of his judicial appointments.  But the Democrats can only get away with this as long as they have a numerical advantage in the Senate.  The 2014 midterm elections are less than a year away, and the "nuclear option" could come back to bite them if the GOP gains enough seats.

All these issues and more could either help or hurt President Obama and the Democrats in the next few years.  What they can't count on is whether voters "go nuclear" themselves at the ballot box.
 

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