Three Primaries, Three Winners

Image via WikipediaFormer House speaker Newt Gingrich has risen from the political grave once again, winning the Republican presidential primary in South Carolina over favorite Mitt Romney.  When you consider what went on in the past week, maybe what happened Saturday wasn't as much of an upset as the pundits believed it was.

First, the GOP field has been whittled from six to four--Gingrich, Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul.  Jon Huntsmann, who apparently decided there's room for only one former Governor who happens to be a Mormon, gave up and now supports Romney.  Texas Governor Rick Perry came to the same conclusion, but only after he shot himself in the foot so often on the campaign trail that he ran out of bullets.  Perry moved his support to Gingrich.

It has not been a good week for Romney.  First, his win at the Iowa caucuses was rescinded and given to Santorum, which means he's only won next-door neighbor New Hampshire's primary.  Then came questions about his days as a venture capitalist for Bain Capital, which included an ABC report that said he and the private equity firm had been stashing away money on the Cayman Islands.  Romney has also yet to release his tax returns, as all candidates must do.  We figure he'll only do so if it's to his political advantage.

Romney is still considered the front-runner with the best chance of beating President Barack Obama in November, but no one seems to like him much.  Conservatives, especially evangelicals, don't care for his Mormonism or his flip-flops on some of their issues.  Progressives believe Romney's too rich and too remote to identify much with average people.

Enter Gingrich.  His status soared in a state that's more conservative than Iowa and New Hampshire as Romney's has fallen.  Gingrich did well in the two South Carolina debates, mostly because he was blasting the media's reporting of his past marital infidelities, which includes ABC's interview with ex-wife Marianne that aired just before the primary.  He's apparently hoping that voters don't care so much about a candidate's sexual track record as they once did.

Gingrich can lambaste the media all he wants, but the truth is he needs them.  He doesn't have the money, the organization nor the support of mainstream Republicans to compete with Romney.  But thanks to the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling (which marked its second anniversary this week), he doesn't have to.

Under the ruling, any anonymous donor (corporate or otherwise) can fund a Super PAC which can churn out enough negative advertising against Romney to keep Gingrich and Santorum in business longer than they have any right to be.  The only catch is that the candidates must not be involved.

Next stop is Florida on January 31.  Another opportunity to write off Gingrich's chances of stopping Romney's inevitable march to the Republican nomination.  But that's what everybody said about South Carolina, and look what happened.