"Egypt Is Free!" Now What?

Image by Frame Maker via FlickrTwenty-four hours after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak enraged his country by refusing to step down, he had flown the coop, leaving his hand-picked vice president to announce on TV that power had been ceded to the military, who apparently no longer believed in him.

It took 18 days and 300 casualties, but the streets of Cairo and across Egypt are celebrating the fact that they have peacefully toppled a dictator who ruled for 30 years.  In reality, though, it was a military coup.

This was a revolution fueled by the advent of social media networks, bringing together those who had gotten tired of the way Mubarak and his minions had been running the show for three decades.  And it was all televised to a worldwide audience, in spite of the regime's best efforts to suppress it.

Until recently, Mubarak had good relations with the United States in terms of keeping the peace in the Middle East and with holding the line on terrorism.  The peace treaty Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat, signed with Israel is still in effect.

So what happens now?  Many questions remain.  Will there be real democracy in Egypt?  Mubarak pretty much outlawed opposition parties when he took office after Sadat's assassination under martial law, and has never rescinded it.  Will the military keep its promise to hold new elections, or did the revolution just trade in one autocrat for another?

As for the rest of the Middle East, where autocratic rulers abound, they're watching their backs and taking notes on how to deal with the next revolution.  So is Israel, but for different reasons.  The next wave would not so much be a victory for democracy as it would be for radical Islamists.  The United States, still dependent on Mideast oil and still Israel's biggest defender, would be a big loser in all of this.

For now, Egyptians have every reason to celebrate what they have accomplished.  Tomorrow, the real work begins to rebuild a country.