Leno "Jaywalks" Into Prime Time

Broadcast TV has been having a rough year. Its audiences keep migrating to cable. The writers strike sank many prime time shows (such as Pushing Daisies and Dirty Sexy Money) that were interrupted because of it. The only new hit this season is CBS' The Mentalist, a crime procedural that fits in with the rest of the network's crime procedurals. And we haven't even had the digital conversion yet.

Now comes the first sign that network TV has thrown in the towel. NBC announced that Jay Leno, who is leaving the Tonight Show to Conan O'Brien next spring, will host his own prime time show five nights a week at nine in the Central Time Zone next fall.

For NBC, it means programming five less hours of TV per week, saving money on what would have gone to expensive misfires such as My Own Worst Enemy or Lipstick Jungle. On the other hand, they now have to move two of the Law and Order shows up an hour.

For Leno, it means not having to move to ABC or Fox. Except for a title change and the necessity of tailoring his material to a new audience, it'll be pretty much the same show he's been doing all along. Leno being a classic car buff, his new contract might enable him to purchase a few more for his collection. Why, they're rolling off the assembly line as we speak.

For the other networks, the new Leno show should provide a short-term boost to the remaining dramatic programs on the air at nine. But what is going to stop them from moving David Letterman and Jimmy Kimmel to prime time if this Leno thing takes off? Even CSI can't last forever.

For NBC affiliates, their late local news is now going to be sandwiched in between Leno and O' Brien. Will some of those stations see this as an opportunity to move their news up an hour (to compete against Fox's local news) and air Leno afterwards?

Speaking of news, this should put the final kibosh for anyone who believes Katie Couric, Brian Williams and Charles Gibson should be in prime time instead of Leno. For all of network TV's problems, why waste time reporting on the auto bailout in prime time when you can still make money on According to Jim?

Then again, Leno, Letterman and Jon Stewart have become de facto news anchors for many people, staying in touch with the world through the politically-laced monologues and sketches that air, as the recent presidential campaign demonstrated. Even a sketch showing people who think Africa is a country instead of a continent can be taken in its political context.

So what's next for broadcast TV? If the networks keep losing money and viewers, they might end up like the Detroit automakers and beg for billions from Congress. Or they could come up with some really novel programming that people will actually watch. If neither of those work, then they've got no one to blame but themselves.