Groundhogs and Generals

On the second day of February, the citizens of Punxsutawney, PA gathered round to witness the verdict of how much winter we're going to get from a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil. If Phil saw his shadow, there would be six more weeks of winter. If not, then spring would come early. This year, Phil saw his shadow. (How could he not with all those TV lights?)

On the tenth day of September, members of the House of Representatives in Washington and a national TV audience gathered to witness the verdict of how much longer the war in Iraq will be from an Army general named David Petraeus, with an assist from Ryan Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq. If the general thought the so-called troop "surge" was going well, then there would be at least six more months of war. If the "surge" wasn't working, then the Democratic-controlled Congress would cut funding and demand that the soldiers come home ASAP.

To no one's surprise, Petraeus told the House Armed Services Committee that the "surge" was helping to reduce the violence in Iraq, but he said he needed six more months for it to work. Petraeus also said that 30,000 soldiers could be drawn down to pre-"surge" levels by next summer. Which leaves over 130,000 sitting ducks, but who's counting?

The optimism coming from Petraeus is tempered by an inept Iraqi government that some people are comparing to America's Founders during the Revolution (Like, uh, where's their George Washington or Thomas Jefferson?), and that, according to some news accounts, most Sunnis have been kicked out of Baghdad by Shiites. And, let's not forget, American soldiers are still getting caught in the crossfire.

There are also suspicions that Petraeus is nothing more than President George W. Bush's mouthpiece (MoveOn dubbed him "General Betray Us"), parroting the White House policy on Iraq. And you never contradict your commander-in-chief, right?

Truth to tell, both political parties need this war to keep going for their own self-serving reasons. For the Republicans, they claim that America is in a "must-win" situation in Iraq, on the basis that any pullout hands Al-Qaeda a victory. For the Democrats, what else do they have to run on in 2008? That's why Petraeus and Bush will end up getting their funding.

Meanwhile, on the sixth anniversary of the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks (still used as an excuse to invade Iraq in the first place), a youthful-looking Osama bin Laden--said to be hiding in the mountains of Pakistan--made a rare appearance on video. Among other things, he suggested to Americans that if they wanted to end the conflict in Iraq, they should switch to Islam. We say: Religion got us into this "war on terror". And religion is going to get us out?

There's hardly any comparison between six weeks of winter and six months of war. But groundhogs and generals have been known to be wrong.